Trade recent situation: China and BPC of exporter of Russia potash fertilizer are reached yesterday potash fertilizer imported a contract 2010, contract volume is 1 million tons, contract price is 350 dollars / ton CFR(is equivalent to FOB of Wen Ge China 320 dollars / ton) , anticipate 70 dollars under the market about / ton, the anticipation with us is relatively adjacent. Comment: Early days although apparently demand of global potash fertilizer picks up somewhat, but the main demand country such as overall China, Brazil and United States demand is low fan, rate of go into operation of main production business is in international 50% the left and right sides, keep 400 dollars / ton the costly case of above restores to demand adverse, global inventory still is in historical perch. Do not abandon Chinese market, reasonable lowering the price is the alternative that produces Shang Mingzhi. The FOB level that reachs actually is less than 300 dollars / ton, we predict the respect such as prospective Canada Canpotex and middle east ICL also is met and China signs the potash fertilizer contract of similar price, be sure to bring about the comprehensive regression of price of international potash fertilizer at the same time, we think price of potash fertilizer of prospective whole world reachs fall after a rise 350 dollars / or so tons, the potash fertilizer price of Chinese home will be maintained in 2400 ～ 2700 yuan / ton, short-term home’s rising potash fertilizer price will somewhat fall after a rise. Here the price falls, hopeful of annual import volume achieved China 2010 4 million tons of right-and-left levels, domestic demand may pick up 7 million tons. Appraise value and proposal: The four seasons spends the element as a result of filling inventory of plant of downstream and compound fertilizer, prep above of sale of integral home potash fertilizer anticipates, the four seasons of saline potash fertilizer spends sale 80 ～ 1 million tons, sale of potash fertilizer of collect cloth berth 300 thousand tons, sale of chemical fertilizer potash fertilizer is changed to predict to be controlled in 1 million tons in. Sales volume forecasted potash fertilizer of saline of the attune on us to reach 1.7 million tons from 1.2 million tons 2009, maintain 2.65 million tons sales volume assumed 2010, move on gain was forecasted 2009 34% reach 1.87 yuan, maintain forecasted with the gain that every gain mixed 2.97 yuan 2.77 yuan 2011 2010. We collect Potassium the potassium sulfate sales volume 2009 assumes go up from 220 thousand tons tone reachs 450 thousand tons, move on EPS reached 0.04 yuan 2009, maintain mixed 2010 2011 EPS 0.69 yuan with 0.86 yuan forecast. We are maintained in change chemical fertilizer to was mixed 2010 2011 EPS 0.17 yuan with 0.22 yuan forecast. Short-term to saline potash fertilizer (share of 000792.CH) , coronal farming (the share price such as 600251.CH) and POT of enterprise of international potash fertilizer, MOS, ICL and Uralkali is relatively negative, chemical fertilizer is changed in be opposite (Sinofert, 297HK) somewhat the front, saline potash fertilizer drops the space is relatively limited, can continue hold, coronal farming share suggests to continue to be decreased appropriately hold, chemical fertilizer is changed in 2010 still the profit with difficult good implementation, maintain ” to decrease hold ” . Risk clew: The global economy environment that prep above expects, and the oil price that prep above expects and inflationary level.
